Ensemble analysis of predicted trajectory uncertainty in an operational Navy model of the western Pacific Ocean
B. L. Lipphardt, Jr., H. S. Huntley, A. D. Kirwan, Jr., P. Hogan
University of Delaware
(Abstract received 08/19/2009 for session A)
ABSTRACT
Trajectory predictions from a twenty-four member ensemble set of Navy ocean forecasts for the western Pacific are compared to determine the variability of Lagrangian uncertainty in a regional ocean model with energetic features including the Kuroshio and mesoscale eddies. The spread of evolving trajectory ensembles with a common set of initial conditions is used to quantify the model’s Lagrangian uncertainty. Variations in the spatial distribution of this uncertainty are compared with variability in the velocity field. Thirty drifters launched as part of a Navy acoustics exercise in October 2007 are also used to assess the variability of trajectory prediction errors among the ensemble set.
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